TER

How TER Has Traded Around Earnings: The Numbers

Over the last eight reported quarters, Teradyne (TER) has beaten the consensus EPS estimate in every single release, producing an 8/8 beat rate with an average earnings surprise of 15.3%. Across those same quarters, the average five-day price drift after earnings was 13.28% in the “up” direction. That combination suggests the stock has historically delivered both better-than-expected results and upward follow-through, but it does not guarantee any particular outcome for the next report.

The four most recent quarters reveal a more complicated picture. On 2025-10-28, TER reported actual EPS of $0.85 against a consensus estimate of $0.79, a 7.6% surprise, and the stock responded with a 20.47% gain the next day and a 21.66% rally over the following five days. On 2026-02-02, the company posted actual EPS of $1.80 versus the estimate of $1.38, a 30.4% surprise, driving a 13.41% next-day pop and a 24.24% five-day gain. More recently, however, beats have been sold immediately. On 2026-04-28, actual EPS of $2.56 versus estimate $2.11—a 21.3% surprise—still led to a 19.41% one-day drop and a 6.06% decline over the next five sessions. On 2026-07-28, actual EPS of $2.47 versus estimate $2.09, an 18.2% surprise, produced a 0.39% next-day loss and null% five-day drift. Those divergences show that the magnitude of an EPS beat alone has not been a reliable predictor of the near-term price reaction.

Options Flow and the October 27 Event

TER’s next scheduled earnings report is on 2026-10-27 after the close, with the current consensus EPS estimate at $2.08. Heading into the event, the stock is trading at $358.85, just below the 50-day EMA of $366.98, with an RSI of 49.0. Around semiconductor earnings, options markets usually price in event risk through elevated near-dated implied volatility, and the market’s real expectation can diverge from the published consensus estimate depending on order flow and positioning.

Traders watching the tape will often compare the straddle or option strangle price at expiration just after the report with the historical five-day drift of 13.28%. If implied volatility is being bid up ahead of 2026-10-27, the options market may be pricing a larger move than the average post-earnings drift, which can create compression risk once the event passes. Conversely, complacent pricing relative to TER’s history of 15.3% average EPS surprise could leave short-gamma positioning exposed to a gap outside the expected range.

A Disciplined Pre-Earnings Watchlist

Given TER’s 100% beat rate and 13.28% average five-day post-earnings drift, a disciplined approach generally separates the headline EPS result from the forward guidance and valuation context. The 2026-04-28 and 2026-07-28 examples make clear that a strong EPS number does not, by itself, prevent a negative price reaction. Traders typically watch whether the stock enters the report above or below the 50-day EMA—in this case, the price is $8.13 below that level at $358.85—whether forward guidance confirms or contradicts the unofficial consensus, and whether the options market has priced in a move larger or smaller than the historical drift.

A risk-aware process also compares the next-day move with the multi-day drift. Because the average five-day drift is positive, next-day weakness after a beat has historically been followed by recovery in some cases and further weakness in others. The Apr 2026 report’s negative five-day drift of 6.06% is a reminder that follow-through is not automatic. Position sizing, volatility assumptions, and post-event liquidity should all be calibrated to the specific setup rather than the historical average alone.

For a deeper dive into analyst positioning, sell-side revisions, and institutional flow before the 2026-10-27 report, consult the full institutional verdict on TER.